Summary of Developments
President Donald Trump announced on May 15, 2025, that the United States and Iran are “very close” to reaching a new nuclear agreement, stating that Tehran has “sort of” agreed to the proposed terms. This announcement comes after several rounds of indirect negotiations, primarily held in Oman, and amid ongoing tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Key Points of the Proposed Deal
US Demands:
– Iran must not develop or possess nuclear weapons. Trump has repeatedly emphasized this as the core, non-negotiable demand: “They can’t have a nuclear weapon. That’s the only thing. It’s very simple”.
– The US has also signaled it wants Iran to halt uranium enrichment entirely, though this remains a major sticking point as Iran considers some enrichment a “red line” it will not cross.
– Additional US requirements, as stated by Trump, include Iran ceasing support for regional proxy groups and ending its pursuit of nuclear weapons permanently and verifiably.
Iranian Position:
– Iran, according to senior adviser Ali Shamkhani, has expressed willingness to:
– Limit its nuclear program and reduce its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
– Enrich uranium only to lower levels needed for civilian purposes.
– Allow international inspectors to monitor its nuclear activities.
– In exchange, Iran is demanding the immediate lifting of all US economic sanctions.
Areas of Agreement:
– Both sides appear to agree on the principle that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons and will accept some level of international oversight.
– Both the US and Iran have publicly stated a preference for a diplomatic solution over military confrontation.
Outstanding Disputes:
- – The extent and pace of sanctions relief: Iran wants immediate and broad relief, while the US may favor a phased approach.
- – The scope of uranium enrichment allowed: The US has pushed for a complete halt, while Iran insists on maintaining some enrichment capacity, albeit at lower levels and under inspection.
- – The fate of Iran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium and the destination of any surplus material remain unresolved.
The Political Context
– The negotiations have intensified during Trump’s tour of Gulf states, with Qatar playing a mediating role.
– Trump’s remarks have been met with skepticism and criticism from Iranian officials, who accuse the US of regional destabilization and question the sincerity of American intentions.
– Oil prices dropped following Trump’s optimistic statements, reflecting market anticipation of a de-escalation.
What Happens Next?
While Trump and US officials project optimism, significant diplomatic hurdles remain. The core issues of sanctions relief, uranium enrichment, and regional security commitments have not been fully resolved. Both sides continue to negotiate, and further talks are expected in the coming weeks.
“Iran has sort of agreed to the terms: They’re not going to make, I call it, in a friendly way, nuclear dust… We’re not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran.”
President Donald Trump, Doha, May 15, 2025
Conclusion
The US and Iran are closer than they have been in years to a new nuclear deal, with both sides signaling willingness to compromise on key points. However, the agreement is not finalized, and major differences-particularly on sanctions and uranium enrichment-still need to be bridged before a formal accord can be announced.