The South Korean won (KRW) has had a wild ride in 2025, shaped by global trade tensions, shifting US dollar trends, and South Korea’s own economic pivots. Let’s break down the market action, spotlight the chart’s highest highs and lowest lows, and decode the indicators that matter most for traders and analysts.
#1
Recent High: In early June 2025, the USD/KRW hit a peak of 1,429.13. This level stands out as a resistance point, where sellers stepped in and the won lost ground against the dollar.
Recent Low: The lowest point in the same period was 1,351.31. This support level shows where buyers found value in the won, halting its decline.
Historically, the all-time high for USD/KRW was much higher—1,995 back in December 1997—but for 2025, the 1,429.13 mark is the number to watch.
Spotlight on the Chart: Highs and Lows
Recent High: In early June 2025, the USD/KRW hit a peak of 1,429.13. This level stands out as a resistance point, where sellers stepped in and the won lost ground against the dollar.Recent Low: The lowest point in the same period was 1,351.31. This support level shows where buyers found value in the won, halting its decline.
Historically, the all-time high for USD/KRW was much higher—1,995 back in December 1997—but for 2025, the 1,429.13 mark is the number to watch.
#2
To truly understand where the won is headed, let’s look at the most popular technical indicators used by forex pros:
1. Moving Averages (MA)
20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): The KRW/USD has been trading below its 20-day SMA, hinting at a short-term consolidation phase—meaning the market is pausing before its next big move.
50-day and 200-day SMA: These longer-term averages have acted as resistance, especially in the 1,420–1,440 range. When the price nears these lines and fails to break through, it signals strong selling pressure.
What the Indicators Say
To truly understand where the won is headed, let’s look at the most popular technical indicators used by forex pros:1. Moving Averages (MA)
20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): The KRW/USD has been trading below its 20-day SMA, hinting at a short-term consolidation phase—meaning the market is pausing before its next big move.
50-day and 200-day SMA: These longer-term averages have acted as resistance, especially in the 1,420–1,440 range. When the price nears these lines and fails to break through, it signals strong selling pressure.
#3
Current reading: In April, the RSI for KRW/USD hit overbought territory before the market pulled back, confirming the indicator’s reliability for spotting reversals
Relative Strength Index
How it works: RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 means the market is overbought (potential for a drop); below 30 means oversold (potential for a bounce).Current reading: In April, the RSI for KRW/USD hit overbought territory before the market pulled back, confirming the indicator’s reliability for spotting reversals
#4
Recent signals: The MACD histogram flashed a bearish divergence during recent highs, suggesting upward momentum was fading and a reversal could be near
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
How it works: MACD tracks the relationship between two moving averages, showing momentum and trend changes.Recent signals: The MACD histogram flashed a bearish divergence during recent highs, suggesting upward momentum was fading and a reversal could be near
#5
Resistance: The 1,420–1,450 zone has repeatedly capped rallies. A break above this could spell more weakness for the won
Support and Resistance
Support: 1,375–1,390 is a critical support zone. If the won falls here and holds, it often rebounds as buyers step in.Resistance: The 1,420–1,450 zone has repeatedly capped rallies. A break above this could spell more weakness for the won
#6
What’s Driving the Won?
Trade Talks: US–South Korea tariff negotiations are shaking up the charts. Announcements can cause sudden swings in the won’s value.
Central Bank Moves: The Bank of Korea’s interest rate decisions and policy statements are key triggers for volatility.
US Dollar Strength: Global risk sentiment and Federal Reserve policy continue to influence the won’s direction.
Chart Patterns
Double Tops and Bottoms: Watch for double tops near 1,470 and double bottoms around 1,375. These patterns signal possible trend reversals—breakouts or breakdowns often followWhat’s Driving the Won?
Trade Talks: US–South Korea tariff negotiations are shaking up the charts. Announcements can cause sudden swings in the won’s value.
Central Bank Moves: The Bank of Korea’s interest rate decisions and policy statements are key triggers for volatility.
US Dollar Strength: Global risk sentiment and Federal Reserve policy continue to influence the won’s direction.
#7
The recent low: 1,351.31 (support zone).
Moving averages, RSI, and MACD are the go-to indicators for reading KRW charts.
The trend is bearish in the medium term, but volatility means quick reversals are possible.
External shocks—like trade talks or central bank moves—can override technical signals in a flash.
Key Takeaways
The won’s recent high: 1,429.13 (resistance zone).The recent low: 1,351.31 (support zone).
Moving averages, RSI, and MACD are the go-to indicators for reading KRW charts.
The trend is bearish in the medium term, but volatility means quick reversals are possible.
External shocks—like trade talks or central bank moves—can override technical signals in a flash.
#8
A: No single indicator is foolproof. Most experts use a mix—moving averages for trend, RSI for momentum, and MACD for confirmation.
Q: How should traders manage risk in this market?
A: Use stop-loss orders and monitor support/resistance levels. Volatility can trigger rapid swings, so discipline is key.
Q: Is the won likely to recover soon?
A: Some analysts see potential for recovery if trade tensions ease and domestic policies stabilize, but uncertainty remains high.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.
FAQ
Q: What’s the most reliable indicator for the KRW/USD chart?A: No single indicator is foolproof. Most experts use a mix—moving averages for trend, RSI for momentum, and MACD for confirmation.
Q: How should traders manage risk in this market?
A: Use stop-loss orders and monitor support/resistance levels. Volatility can trigger rapid swings, so discipline is key.
Q: Is the won likely to recover soon?
A: Some analysts see potential for recovery if trade tensions ease and domestic policies stabilize, but uncertainty remains high.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.
