1. Current Price & Market Context
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Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades around $118,680, holding just below the key $120K resistance mark.
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The market recently hit a fresh all-time high near $123,236 on July 14, 2025.
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Broader macro trends: the U.S. dollar has weakened, and equities turned lower—factors that traditionally favor BTC as an alternative asset.
2. Chart Patterns & Technical Indicators
Cup‑and‑Handle Breakout
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Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies) emphasizes the emergence of a classic cup‑and‑handle pattern—bullish if BTC decisively breaks above $120K–$120.5K resistance.
MACD, RSI & Momentum
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MACD histogram on daily charts hints at potential bearish flattening while still in a bullish regime.
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The 14‑day RSI remains elevated (~70–80), signaling strong momentum but also hinting at overbought conditions.
Moving Averages & Pivots
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Key support and resistance zones:
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Support: $116K–$115.5K (short-term pivot) and $115.5K–$115K major support.
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Resistance: $120K–$120.5K immediate barrier; next at $123.2K ATH.
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Forex-style analysis offers scenarios: longs above $119,955 targeting ~$120,100, shorts below this level targeting down to $116K.
3. Outlook & Trade Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
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A sustained break and close above $120.5K would likely confirm the cup‑and‑handle, paving the way toward $130K, and potentially $134.5K per Stockton.
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Continued institutional inflows—evidenced by ETF activity and strategic government reserves—and declining dollar strength support this outcome.
Bearish Scenario
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Failure at $120K resistance could trigger a retrace to the $116K–$115K support band. A breach below that could test the 200‑day MA around $109K.
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This remains the high‑reward “buy‑on‑dip” zone as long as macro conditions stay favorable.
4. Strategic Insight
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Short-term traders should watch for daily closes above $120.5K (bullish) or breakdown below $116K (bearish).
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Long-term investors may view the pullbacks as accumulation opportunities, with attractive entry zones between $115K–$120K.
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Broader catalysts like dollar trends, ETF flows, and evolving U.S. regulation will heavily influence the next leg.
