Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, is on the verge of joining the S&P 500 index. This move could bring Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency Strategy holds in large quantities, indirectly into one of the world’s most important stock market benchmarks.
Why Bitcoin’s Price Matters for Strategy’s Inclusion
Strategy’s entry into the S&P 500 depends on Bitcoin’s price staying above $95,240 through June 30, 2025. This is because of a new accounting rule, ASU 2023-08, which requires companies to revalue Bitcoin holdings at fair market value every reporting period.
This means gains or losses on Bitcoin directly affect Strategy’s reported earnings. To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must show positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. Although Strategy had net losses in the previous three quarters, recent Bitcoin gains could push its earnings into positive territory—if Bitcoin’s price stays above that threshold.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Position
Strategy holds 592,345 Bitcoins, the largest Bitcoin reserve among public companies. The average cost of these holdings is about $70,666 per Bitcoin, while the current market value exceeds $63.5 billion as of late June 2025.
This massive Bitcoin reserve makes Strategy’s financial health tightly linked to Bitcoin’s price movements. If Bitcoin’s price remains stable or rises, Strategy’s earnings improve, increasing the chances of S&P 500 inclusion.
The Probability of Inclusion
Historically, Bitcoin has rarely dropped more than 10% in a six-day period, happening only 8.7% of the time since 2014. As the quarter-end approaches, the likelihood that Bitcoin will stay above $95,240 increases to over 97% on the final day before June 30.
Currently, Strategy has about a 91% chance of meeting the earnings eligibility criteria for the S&P 500, assuming Bitcoin’s price holds steady.
What Strategy’s Inclusion Means for Bitcoin and Investors
If Strategy joins the S&P 500, Bitcoin effectively gains indirect exposure within the index. Many institutional investors, including ETFs, mutual funds, and pension funds, track the S&P 500. They would then hold Strategy shares, gaining access to Bitcoin exposure without directly buying the cryptocurrency.
This could create a feedback loop: increased demand for Strategy shares might encourage the company to buy more Bitcoin, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price higher. This cycle could attract more investors and further legitimize Bitcoin in mainstream finance.
Strategy would become the second crypto-related company in the S&P 500, following Coinbase’s inclusion earlier in 2025. This milestone highlights growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional markets.
| Aspect | Details |
| Bitcoin Price Threshold | $95,240 (must hold through June 30, 2025) |
| Bitcoin Holdings | 592,345 BTC, largest among public companies |
| Accounting Rule | ASU 2023-08 (Bitcoin revalued at fair market) |
| Probability of Inclusion | 91% (if Bitcoin price condition met) |
| Potential Market Impact | Indirect Bitcoin exposure in S&P 500, institutional adoption, possible price boost |
Key Takeaways
- Strategy’s S&P 500 inclusion depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price staying above $95,240 by June 30, 2025.
- New accounting standards mean Bitcoin’s market value directly affects Strategy’s earnings.
- Inclusion would bring Bitcoin exposure to many institutional investors through the S&P 500.
- This could accelerate Bitcoin’s acceptance and create a cycle of increased demand and rising prices.
FAQs
Q: Why does Bitcoin’s price affect Strategy’s S&P 500 eligibility?
- Because Bitcoin holdings are revalued at market price each quarter, gains or losses impact earnings, which must be positive over four quarters for S&P 500 inclusion.
Q: What if Bitcoin falls below $95,240 before June 30?
- Strategy likely won’t meet earnings requirements and will miss inclusion this quarter.
Q: How does Strategy’s inclusion affect Bitcoin’s presence in traditional finance?
- It indirectly brings Bitcoin into the S&P 500, exposing institutional investors to Bitcoin through Strategy’s stock.
Q: Has any crypto company joined the S&P 500 before?
- Yes, Coinbase and Circle joined, making Strategy potentially the third.
This development could mark a turning point for Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream financial markets. Watch Bitcoin’s price closely as June 30 approaches—its movement might decide whether Strategy and Bitcoin take a big step into the heart of traditional investing.
